WISE THINKING – AT 8:16 A.M. ET:  We have repeatedly warned here about over-optimism in Republican ranks, and wild predictions of a GOP tsunami.  Fortunately, the real pros are thinking the same way, as Byron York reports in the Washington Examiner:

Things have gotten out of hand when it comes to predictions of a Republican victory in the upcoming midterm elections. In recent days, talk of a GOP edge has turned into talk of a GOP blowout. Prognosticators have upgraded the coming political storm from Category 4 to Category 5. Republican control of the House has gone from possible to inevitable.

Dick Morris, in particular, has been on Fox every night virtually assuring us of a Republican blowout in both houses of Congress.

But Republicans don't believe it, or at least the insiders involved in the midterm effort don't believe it. As they see it, they're in a good position to pick up the 39 seats needed to win control of the House, but polls showing a huge GOP lead are simply wrong. "I'm assuming that Cook and Rothenberg and Rove and the others have got different indications from what we've got," says one member of the House GOP election team. "I don't want to overestimate what's out there."

It could well be that, privately, the pros also see the possibility of a landslide, but know that it could be taken away by the indifference (and non-voting) that comes from overconfidence. 

Some of the talk downplaying the GOP lead may be counterspin to ensure Republicans don't become overconfident. "We don't want to cause our voters to get lax and think we've got it," says the member of the election team. But Republicans are also genuinely concerned about peaking too soon.

And...

Perhaps the best way to characterize the GOP election team now is confident but nervous -- confident that the basic trends of the election are going their way but nervous at the talk of a runaway victory. Be on guard against irrational exuberance, they're telling supporters -- and be sure to vote on Nov. 2.

Those are grown-ups talking.

September 10, 2010